H-2B Supplemental Visas — What Each Lottery Group Should Realistically Expect (FY 2026)

Many employers ask: “Okay… but what are my real chances of getting workers?”

First — A Quick Refresher on How Supplemental Visas Work

For FY 2026, the government created 64,716 additional H-2B visas beyond the regular cap. They are divided by start date of need, not by lottery group:

➡️ April 1 – April 30, 2026: 27,736 visas (returning workers only)

➡️May 1 – September 30, 2026: 18,490 visas (new OR returning workers)

This matters because lottery group affects how early you can file, and filing timing determines whether a supplemental number still exists when USCIS receives your petition.

The DOL does NOT allocate visas. The DOL determines who is allowed to file with USCIS. USCIS numbers are used on a first-to-file basis.

Realistic Outlook by Lottery Group

The question most employers are asking right now is not whether their application is approvable — it is whether they will reach visa numbers before they run out.

Below is a practical assessment based on how the H-2B cap, DOL adjudication timing, and supplemental allocations historically interact. This is not an official government projection. It is a practical, experience-based analysis of how the H-2B system historically functions when you combine:

• DOL processing speed

• USCIS cap usage

• petition filing timing

• and the supplemental visa allocations

**These projections are provided solely to establish baseline expectations based on current agency guidance and processing trends; outcomes are not guaranteed, and because this is the first season operating under the present H-2B cap allocation and eligibility framework, actual results may differ as cases are processed in real time.

✅ Group A- Outlook: Highest likelihood of success

Assuming the case does not experience significant Notice of Deficiency (NOD) delays, Group A employers are best positioned to reach USCIS first and capture numbers under the 33,000 statutory second-half cap. These filings typically beat the cap rather than relying on supplemental visas.

✅ Group B - Outlook: Good, but not guaranteed

Group B employers still have a reasonably strong position, particularly if:

• No NOD is issued, and

• the I-129 petition is filed immediately upon certification.

However, this group often falls near the point where the statutory cap is exhausted, meaning typically some employers will obtain cap numbers while others may need supplemental visas.

Groups C–H - Outlook: Dependent on supplemental visas

Beginning in Group C, employers are generally no longer racing the statutory cap — they are racing the supplemental visa allocations issued by DHS and DOL. *Note for this season, DOL is currently working through 1st actions on Group C.

✅ Groups C–E - Outlook: Strong likelihood for returning workers

Based on the size of the returning-worker supplemental allocation, employers in these groups are very likely to obtain workers if filing for returning workers and petitions are filed promptly after certification.

This is typically where the returning-worker allocation is primarily utilized each season.

❓Group F - Outlook: Possible but uncertain

Group F employers may still capture remaining returning-worker supplemental visas, but success will depend on visa demand in preceding groups. Small delays in certification issuance, document turnaround, or petition filing can determine the outcome.

❌ Groups G–H Outlook: Very unlikely for April 1 returning workers

Employers in these groups historically reach USCIS after most, if not all, returning-worker supplemental numbers have already been claimed. Many employers in these later groups elect a strategic alternative:

• withdraw the April 1 filing before first action, and

• refile for a May 1 or later start date.

✅ May 1st or later Start Date: This places the case into a different supplemental allocation that includes new-worker eligibility. Employers should expect worker arrival realistically sometime in June under that strategy. Given this is the first iteration of a large late season allocation for supplemental visas, we cannot predict how far this batch will stretch into the later dates.

If a later arrival is not operationally workable, the remaining option may be planning for a future H-2B season.

Important Reminder

Lottery group does not determine whether your need is valid. You must still file a valid labor certification with DOL to be successful. At this stage of the season, success is primarily about timing — and timing in H-2B is often measured in days.

Need Help Planning a Supplemental Strategy?

If you are unsure whether your case should continue forward, wait, or pivot to a May 1 or later filing, this is the point in the season where individualized strategy really matters. The right decision often depends on your lottery group, worker type (returning vs. new), operational timeline, and tolerance for delayed arrivals.

Employers who succeed in the H-2B process are not simply “lucky” — they prepare early, document their need thoroughly, and adjust strategy as government guidance evolves. We are always happy to help employers evaluate options and plan ahead for future seasons.

If you would like to discuss your options and build a plan around the supplemental visas or plan for the 2027 season, feel free to reach out. I am happy to review your situation and help you determine the most practical path forward for this season.

**This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Reading or interacting with this post does not create an attorney-client relationship. Immigration outcomes depend on individual facts, timing, and government action; nothing in this article should be interpreted as a guarantee of any result.